Predicting current and future suitable habitats for Bergenia ciliata in Indian Himalayan region

• Published in: Landscape and ecological engineering Vol. 21; no. 3; pp. 529 - 542
• Main Authors: Singh, Harish Chandra, Maurya, Aakash, Wairokpam, Benerjit, Tiwari, Vandana, Tiwari, Avinash, Rana, Tikam Singh
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Tokyo Springer Japan 01.07.2025; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Biomedical and Life Sciences; Civil Engineering; Climate change; Emissions; Environmental Management; Greenhouse gases; Habitats; Human influences; Landscape Ecology; Landscape/Regional and Urban Planning; Life Sciences; Nature Conservation; Original Paper; Overexploitation; Plant Ecology; Precipitation; Rhizomes; Road construction; Climate change; Species distribution modeling; Habitat suitability; Saxifragaceae; Environmental variables; Ensemble modeling
• ISSN: 1860-1871; 1860-188X
• DOI: 10.1007/s11355-025-00655-8

Climate change has a significant influence on the development and distribution of vegetation worldwide. The present study was undertaken to predict suitable habitats for Bergenia ciliata under current and future scenarios using ensemble modeling. In recent decades, the natural regeneration of B. ciliata has decreased due to anthropogenic activities, such as road construction and overexploitation of B. ciliata rhizomes by traders through local people. A total of 131 occurrence records and 11 non-correlated environmental variables were used in this study. The major environmental components for determining the suitable habitat distribution for B. ciliata were slope (20.6%), precipitation of driest quarter (bio17, 13.4%), precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18, 11.7%), and mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9, 10.2%). The high, medium and low suitable areas under the current climate scenario are distributed about 39,279 km 2 , 38,124 km 2 , and 116,811 km 2 , respectively. High suitable areas would remain about 29,032 km 2 (26.09% reduction) and 30,876 km 2 , (21.39% reduction) under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario in 2060 and 2080 (SSP5-8.5). The high suitable areas under future climate scenarios would be reduced more in the Western Himalayan region than Eastern Himalayan region. The predicted suitable habitat areas will be helpful for future exploration and conservation management plans for B. ciliata .