Data transformation models utilized in Bayesian probabilistic forecast considering inflow forecasts

• Published in: Hydrology Research Vol. 50; no. 5; pp. 1267 - 1280
• Main Authors: Xu, Wei, Fu, Xiaoying, Li, Xia, Wang, Ming
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London IWA Publishing 01.10.2019
• Subjects: Bayesian analysis; Data; Distribution; Forecast accuracy; Hydroelectric power; Hydrology; Inflow; Mathematical models; Medium-range forecasting; Model testing; Neural networks; Normal distribution; Precipitation; Probability theory; Runoff; Statistical analysis; Theory; Wind power
• ISSN: 0029-1277; 1998-9563; 2224-7955
• DOI: 10.2166/nh.2019.028

Abstract This paper presents a new Bayesian probabilistic forecast (BPF) model to improve the efficiency and reliability of normal distribution transformation and to describe the uncertainties of medium-range forecasting inflows with 10 days forecast horizons. In this model, the inflow data will be transformed twice to a standard normal distribution. The Box–Cox (BC) model is first used to quickly transform the inflow data with a normal distribution, and then, the transformed data are converted to a standard normal distribution by the meta-Gaussian (MG) model. Based on the transformed inflows in the standard normal distribution, the prior and likelihood density functions of the BPF are established, respectively. In this study, the newly developed model is tested on China's Huanren hydropower reservoir and is compared with BPFs using MG and BC, separately. Comparative results show that the new BPF model exhibits significantly improved data transformation efficiency and forecast accuracy.