Probabilistic modeling of cascading failure risk in interdependent channel and road networks in urban flooding

• Published in: Sustainable cities and society Vol. 62; p. 102398
• Main Authors: Dong, Shangjia, Yu, Tianbo, Farahmand, Hamed, Mostafavi, Ali
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.11.2020
• Subjects: Bayesian network modeling; Cascading failure; Co-located channel-road network; Probabilistic flood risk assessment; Urban resilience; Probabilistic flood risk assessment; Bayesian network modeling; Cascading failure; Co-located channel-road network; Urban resilience
• ISSN: 2210-6707; 2210-6715
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102398

•Bayesian network flood model integrating network structure and empirical flood data.•Failure characterization of road network considering cascading failure from channels.•Simulation of flood propagation on the road network with high accuracy.•Quantitative flood risk measurement in road networks with a tiered representation.•Assist decision-makers to prioritize infrastructure protections for risk reduction. This paper presents a probabilistic model for assessing risk of cascading failures in co-located road and channel networks. The proposed Bayesian network analysis framework integrates network structural properties and empirical flood propagation data to model the spread of flooding. The model was tested in a multiple watershed scenario in Harris County, Texas (USA), using historical flood data from past events. The results show the capability of the proposed Bayesian network model to quantitatively characterize the failure (i.e., inundation) of road network considering the cascading failure (i.e., overflow) from the channel network. The proposed model also enables simulating the risk of flood cascades (i.e., flood propagation) on the road network with high accuracy. The generic design of the algorithm also enables the adaptation of the proposed framework in other cities and regions. Accordingly, the proposed model provides a new tool to help decision-makers prioritize infrastructure protection plans and emergency response actions.