Methodology for Natech coupling risk assessment using correlative multi-criteria decision-making method

• Published in: Journal of loss prevention in the process industries Vol. 83; p. 105060
• Main Authors: Wang, Jiajun, Weng, Wenguo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.07.2023
• Subjects: Comprehensive risk assessment; Coupling risk; Fuzzy measure; Multi-criteria decision-making; Natech; Coupling risk; Comprehensive risk assessment; Fuzzy measure; Natech; Multi-criteria decision-making
• ISSN: 0950-4230
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2023.105060

When a natural disaster occurs, it may damage multiple industrial facilities in a certain area at the same time, and the resulting Natech events may have an impact on the surrounding industrial facilities, generating coupling risk. In this study, the assessment of Natech events coupling risk is conducted using the method of correlated multi-criteria decision-making, and the knowledge of fuzzy measures is introduced to solve the uncertainty problem in Natech coupling risk. Natech Coupling Risk Index is constructed to involve physical and functional facilities. The concept of equivalent population is proposed to compare the risks generated by physical facilities and functional facilities. And economic indicators are added to calculate the comprehensive risk value. The purpose of this contribution is to enable local government managers to use their expertise and resources and the existing risk assessment of the plants themselves and rely on the scoring of experts limitedly to quickly and easily identify potential high Natech risk areas. In the calculation process of coupling risk, the government can also take the lead to promote information communication between different plants and other industrial subjects. The proposed method was applied in a realistic chemical industry area in Guangzhou, China and in a hypothetical town. The result shows that the physical risk may be transferred to the population and economy through the coupling between industrial facilities and the functional link between functional facilities and population and economy. •Natech coupling risk is assessed using a correlated multi-criteria decision-making method.•Risk of physical damage and loss of functional services of industrial facilities are jointly considered.•Transmission of physical effects through the link between functional facilities and population and economy is shown.•Exposure of population and economy are jointly considered to obtain comprehensive risk.•Concept of equivalent population is proposed to compare the risks generated by physical and functional facilities.