Combined Interval Prediction Algorithm Based on Optimal Relevancy, Redundancy and Synergy

• Published in: Applied mathematical modelling Vol. 123; pp. 566 - 589
• Main Authors: Gao, Jialu, Wang, Jianzhou, Wei, Danxiang, Jiang, He
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01.11.2023
• Subjects: Combined interval prediction algorithm; Hybrid feature selection strategy; Multi-objective optimization mechanism; Power grid dispatching management; Power load; Multi-objective optimization mechanism; Hybrid feature selection strategy; Power grid dispatching management; Combined interval prediction algorithm; Power load
• ISSN: 0307-904X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2023.06.040

•A novel combined interval prediction algorithm is proposed in this paper.•Hybrid feature selection strategy is designed in the proposed system.•Multi-objective optimization mechanism reflects strong search capabilities.•Four interval prediction models cover the inherent modes of sequence. Traditional point prediction approaches can not reflect the uncertainty, which brings greater risks to decision-makers. To fill this gap, this paper extends a feature selection strategy that relies solely on correlation and redundant feature judgment, proposes a novel combined interval prediction algorithm, 3-Mcip (Combined Interval Prediction Based on Maximize Relevancy, Minimize Redundancy and Maximize Synergy) system, and solves the tradeoff between prediction accuracy and interval width. This system first designs a hybrid feature selection strategy to optimally select candidate variables and reduce model input redundancy. Secondly, the structure of the four ANN models is improved to accommodate the results of feature selection, and an optimization mechanism is introduced to search for the Pareto optimal solution set. In order to measure the comprehensive performance of the 3-Mcip system, hourly power load data and related candidate variables from Pittsburgh and Washington, D.C are considered. The numerical results show that the 3-Mcip system has coverage rates of 53.3333, 90.1667, and 99.4479 for Site 1 at different levels of interval width coefficients, which not only achieves perfect prediction of power load but also analyzes uncertainty. It is also helpful for power system managers to better capture the fluctuation range of future load and improve the flexibility of smart grid dispatching.