Forecasting electron precipitation based on predicted geomagnetic activity

• Published in: Advances in space research Vol. 36; no. 12; pp. 2445 - 2450
• Main Authors: Wüest, M., Frahm, R.A., Jennings, J.K., Sharber, J.R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 2005
• Subjects: Electron precipitation; Forecasting; Geomagnetic activity; Space weather; Space weather; Geomagnetic activity; Forecasting; Electron precipitation
• ISSN: 0273-1177; 1879-1948
• DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2003.12.014

We have developed a statistical model of precipitating electrons based on 10 years worth of NOAA-12 Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data. For each hour of UT, the electron spectral shape is defined for solar activity (using F 10.7), geomagnetic activity (using Dst, Kp, and PC), invariant latitude (40 to 90°N and −40° to −90°S), and every hour of magnetic local time to form a climatology. The current version of our climatology includes a description of the precipitating differential number flux, unfolded from the integral high-energy telescopes of SEM and its lower-energy differential measurements. In total, the energy range covered by SEM is from 300 eV to 1 MeV. We use real-time Dst predictions from several sites on the Internet which forecast Dst up to 1 h ahead of time to predict the corresponding precipitating electron flux. Our electron precipitation forecast contributes to space weather applications by predicting a spectral description of atmospheric electron energy input. These electron energy spectra can be used to generate atmospheric energy input, ionization rates and height-integrated Hall and Pedersen conductivities, which are important parameters to models such as AMIE and TIME-GCM. Our data could also improve the space environment description used in spacecraft charging models.