Rationality of U.S. Department of Agriculture Livestock Price Forecasts: A Unified Approach

• Published in: Journal of agricultural and applied economics Vol. 39; no. 1; pp. 75 - 85
• Main Authors: Sanders, Dwight R., Manfredo, Mark R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York, USA Cambridge University Press 01.04.2007
• Subjects: agricultural forecasts; Agriculture; broiler chickens; C53; cattle; Commodities; econometric models; Efficiency; eggs; Elasticity; forecast evaluation; forecasting errors; Forward exchange; Futures market; Hypotheses; Hypothesis testing; Livestock; livestock prices; livestock production; milk; Prices; Q13; Rationality; swine; Time series; turkeys; USDA; United States; C53; Q13; rationality; livestock prices; forecast evaluation
• ISSN: 1074-0708; 2056-7405
• DOI: 10.1017/S1074070800022768

This research presents a systematic and unified approach to evaluating forecast rationality that considers the potential of nonstationarity in forecasts and realized values. The approach is applied to one-quarter ahead U.S. Department of Agriculture livestock price forecasts from 1982 through 2004. Results show that forecasts and realized prices are integrated of the same order, and those that are nonstationary are cointegrated. However, the stationary price forecasts for hogs, turkeys, eggs, and milk are biased and improperly scaled, and forecast errors tend to be repeated. Similarly, nonstationary forecasts for cattle and broilers are also biased and irrational in the long run, but short-run dynamics are rational.