Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon

• Published in: PLOS climate Vol. 3; no. 4; p. e0000315
• Main Authors: Navas, Andrea L Araujo, Janko, Mark M, Benítez, Fátima L, Narvaez, Manuel, Vasco, Luis E, Kansara, Prakrut, Zaitchik, Benjamin, Pan, William K, Mena, Carlos F
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 01.01.2024; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Agriculture; Bayesian analysis; Censuses; Climate; Correlation analysis; Cross correlation; Decision making; Deforestation; Disease transmission; Health facilities; Health risks; Hydrology; Hydrometeorology; Hypotheses; Land cover; Land use; Malaria; Mathematical models; Moisture content; Mosquitoes; Plasmodium falciparum; Plasmodium vivax; Precipitation; Public health; Risk assessment; River networks; Urban agriculture; Urban areas; Vector-borne diseases; Vegetation; Water content; Ecuador; Amazon Basin
• ISSN: 2767-3200; 2767-3200
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000315

Malaria transmission is influenced by climate and land use/land cover change (LULC). This study examines the impact of climate and LULC on malaria risk in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Weekly malaria surveillance data between 2008 and 2019 from Ecuador's Ministry of Public Health were combined with hydrometeorological and LULC data. Cross-correlation analyses identified time lags. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated annual LULC rates of change (ARC) by census area and assessed the effects on and incidence. ARC for the five land cover classes (forest, agriculture, urban, shrub vegetation, water) ranged from -1 to 4% with agriculture increasing across areas. Forest and shrub vegetation ARC were significantly associated with both and . Temperature and terrestrial water content showed consistent negative relationships with both species. Precipitation had varying effects on (null) and (increase) incidence. Shrubs and forest expansion, increased temperature, and terrestrial water content reduced malaria incidence, while increased precipitation had varying effects. Relationships between malaria, LULC, and climate are complex, influencing risk profiles. These findings aid decision-making and guide further research in the region.