A Space Weather Approach for Quasi‐Real‐Time Assessment of Satellite Orbital Decay During Geomagnetic Storms Based on Two‐Line Element Sets

• Published in: Space weather Vol. 23; no. 3
• Main Authors: Wu, Yihan, Mao, Dongyan, Mao, Tian, Chen, Zhou, Wang, Jing‐Song
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.03.2025; Wiley
• Subjects: Accelerometers; Atmospheric density; Decay rate; density proxy; Geomagnetic storms; Geomagnetism; In situ measurement; Information retrieval; Magnetic storms; Orbit decay; orbital decay; Reliability; Satellites; Space missions; Space weather; space weather approach; Spacecraft; Storms; Thermosphere; thermospheric density; two‐line element sets
• ISSN: 1542-7390; 1539-4964; 1542-7390
• DOI: 10.1029/2024SW004289

Due to the scarcity of in situ measurements in the thermosphere, the retrieval of thermospheric mass density primarily relies on model simulations or the inversion of satellite accelerometers and orbital data. Density derived from satellite inversion is more accurate, often reflecting the actual density at the satellite altitude. However, due to the challenges of comprehensive spacecraft information retrieval as well as its accessibility, and the complexity of inversion methods, real‐time density data are generally not immediately available. Atmospheric density from model simulations can introduce errors, particularly exacerbated during geomagnetic storms, posing significant challenges for space missions. Wu et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ja032733) proposed a successful novel method to compute density proxy which shows small discrepancies with measured density, proving its reliability in describing actual thermospheric density. In this present paper, historical orbital data from spacecraft are used to obtain an orbital decay factor W $W$ during non‐storm periods. This factor is then combined with the derived density proxy to propose a novel space weather approach for the quasi‐real‐time assessment of satellite orbital decay during storms. Using the FY‐3G satellite as a case study, computed orbital decay rates are compared with measured values, validating the reliability of this space weather approach. Plain Language Summary Real‐time estimation of atmospheric density at a satellite's location remains a significant challenge, particularly during geomagnetic storms. These storms disturb the upper atmosphere, increasing density at satellite altitudes and leading to heightened drag forces, which can cause orbital decay or require costly adjustments to maintain satellite orbits. Understanding these atmospheric dynamics is critical to ensuring satellite operational stability and mitigating risks such as collisions or premature deorbiting. To address these challenges, this study explores the physical significance of the orbital decay factor W introduced by Wu et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ja032733) and develops a space weather approach to assess satellite orbital decay in quasi‐real‐time. This method uses readily available orbital data from other spacecraft, enabling timely and accurate orbital decay estimates without requiring detailed parameter information about the target satellite. Using the FY‐3G satellite as a case study, the derived orbital decay rates are compared against observed data, demonstrating the reliability of this approach for quasi‐real‐time satellite tracking during storm conditions. Key Points A novel space weather approach for quasi‐real‐time assessment of satellite orbit decay during geomagnetic storms is proposed The orbital decay factor W $W$ has significant physical meaning and is a key parameter in the new method for determining orbital decay The reliability of this approach is validated through the assessment of orbit decay during geomagnetic storms using the FY‐3G satellite