Markov Chain Model Development for Forecasting Air Pollution Index of Miri, Sarawak

• Published in: Sustainability Vol. 11; no. 19; p. 5190
• Main Authors: Zakaria, Nurul Nnadiah, Othman, Mahmod, Sokkalingam, Rajalingam, Daud, Hanita, Abdullah, Lazim, Abdul Kadir, Evizal
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.10.2019
• Subjects: Air pollution; Air pollution forecasting; Air quality; Case studies; Forecasting; Linear programming; Manpower; Markov analysis; Markov chains; Mathematical models; Maximum likelihood method; Nitrogen dioxide; Pollution index; Pollution levels; Probability; State vectors; Stochastic models; Transition probabilities; Weather; Malaysia
• ISSN: 2071-1050; 2071-1050
• DOI: 10.3390/su11195190

A Markov chain is commonly used in stock market analysis, manpower planning, and in many other areas because of its efficiency in predicting long run behavior. However, the Air Quality Index (AQI) suffers from not using a Markov chain in its forecasting approach. Therefore, this paper proposes a simple forecasting tool to predict the future air quality with a Markov chain model. The proposed method introduces the Markov chain as an operator to evaluate the distribution of the pollution level in the long term. Initial state vector and state transition probability were used in forecasting the behavior of Air Pollution Index (API) that has been obtained from the observed frequency for one state shift to another. The study explores that regardless of the present status of API, in the long run, the index shows a probability of 0.9231 for a good state, and a moderate and unhealthy state with a probability of 0.0722 and 0.0037, while for very unhealthy and hazardous states a probability of 0.0001 and 0.0009. The outcome of this study reveals that the model development could be used as a forecasting method that able to help government to project a prevention action plan during hazy weather.