Numerical Simulation of Wind Wave Using Ensemble Forecast Wave Model: A Case Study of Typhoon Lingling

A wave forecast numerical simulation was performed for Typhoon Lingling around the Korean Peninsula and in the East Asia region using sea winds from 24 members produced by the Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG) of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Significant wave height was obser...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of marine science and engineering Vol. 9; no. 5; p. 475
Main Authors Roh, Min, Kim, Hyung-Suk, Chang, Pil-Hun, Oh, Sang-Myeong
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Basel MDPI AG 01.05.2021
Subjects
Accuracy
Boundary conditions
Buoys
Data buoys
Drifting buoys
Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG)
ensemble spread
ensemble wave model
Hurricanes
Lead time
Lingling
Mathematical models
Oceanic analysis
Performance prediction
Probability theory
probability verification
Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC)
Significant wave height
Simulation
Typhoons
Verification
Wave height
Weather
Weather forecasting
Wind
Wind waves
Winds
Korean Peninsula
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Summary:A wave forecast numerical simulation was performed for Typhoon Lingling around the Korean Peninsula and in the East Asia region using sea winds from 24 members produced by the Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG) of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Significant wave height was observed by the ocean data buoys used to verify data of the ensemble wave model, and the results of the ensemble members were analyzed through probability verification. The forecast performance for the significant wave height improved by approximately 18% in the root mean square error in the three-day lead time compared to that of the deterministic model, and the difference in performance was particularly distinct towards mid-to-late lead times. The ensemble spread was relatively appropriate, even in the longer lead time, and each ensemble model runs were all stable. As a result of the probability verification, information on the uncertainty that could not be provided in the deterministic model could be obtained. It was found that all the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.9 or above, demonstrating good predictive performance, and the ensemble wave model is expected to be useful in identifying and determining hazardous weather conditions.
ISSN:2077-1312
2077-1312
DOI:10.3390/jmse9050475