Responding to climate change around England's coast - The scale of the transformational challenge

• Published in: Ocean & coastal management Vol. 225; p. 106187
• Main Authors: Sayers, Paul, Moss, Charlotte, Carr, Sam, Payo, Andres
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 15.06.2022
• Subjects: Adaptation; Coastal risk; Platform lowering; Sea level rise; Transformation; Platform lowering; HtL; NCERM; Transformation; CCC; PCU; FFE; IPCC; MR; PV; GHG; Sea level rise; UKCCRA; Coastal risk; BCR; GDP; rSLR; NAI; SMP; AtL; SLR; PMU; FCERM; Adaptation
• ISSN: 0964-5691; 1873-524X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106187

Around the world coastal communities face an unprecedented challenge in responding to sea level rise and associated changes. For many responding through incremental adaptation may be appropriate (although not without limits). This may include progressively raising defences, nourishing beaches, and other conventional management measures. Such actions are well supported by existing governance structures and investment vehicles. For others however, continuing to provide protection from flooding may not be technically feasible or financially viable. For these communities, transformational adaptation will be needed (including realignment or relocation). Implementing transformational change, however, is difficult and requires a clarity of long-term planning and a means of supporting communities to take early action in making this transition. This paper explores the scale of the transformational challenge in England through to 2100. The combined influences of relative Sea Level Rise and the local lowering of the foreshore platform due to increased wave-driven surface erosion are considered. The realism of published shoreline policies (set out within England's Shoreline Management Plans) are assessed based on projected changes in flood risk and benefit-cost considerations. The assessment suggests 1,600–1,900 km (∼30%) of England's shoreline currently designated as a ‘Hold-the-Line’ policy is likely to see increasing pressure to realign (assuming a rise in Global Mean Surface Temperature of between 2 and 4 °C by 2100) with implications for ∼120,000–160,000 residential and non-residential properties by the 2050s. It is likely that a proportion of these properties will require relocation. It is not possible to say how many this will be. This will be a matter for government and the associated policy and funding priorities that will influence local outcomes. •Progress has been to embed ‘incremental’ adaptation in coastal plans, but a significant gap remains delivering ‘transformational’ change.•By the 2050s, a Hold-the-Line policy is likely to become increasingly difficult along 1,600–1,900 km of England's shoreline.•Consequently, ∼120-160,000 properties are likely to experience increased uncertainty as to their continued protection from coastal floodiing.•For some communities, climate change will have a profound, not marginal, impact and they will need support to implement transformational change.