Efficacy of Random Forest Models in Predicting Multidrug-Resistant Gram-Negative Bacterial Nosocomial Infections Compared to Traditional Logistic Regression Models

• Published in: Microbial drug resistance (Larchmont, N.Y.) Vol. 30; no. 5; p. 179
• Main Authors: Deng, Jinglan, Ge, Yongchun, Yu, Lingli, Zuo, Qiuxia, Zhao, Kexin, Adila, Maimaiti, Wang, Xiao, Niu, Ke, Tian, Ping
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States 01.05.2024
• Subjects: Adult; Aged; Anti-Bacterial Agents - pharmacology; Anti-Bacterial Agents - therapeutic use; China; Cross Infection - drug therapy; Cross Infection - microbiology; Drug Resistance, Multiple, Bacterial; Female; Gram-Negative Bacteria - drug effects; Gram-Negative Bacterial Infections - drug therapy; Gram-Negative Bacterial Infections - microbiology; Humans; Logistic Models; Male; Middle Aged; Random Forest; China; logistic regression model; random forest model; nosocomial infection; multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria
• ISSN: 1931-8448
• DOI: 10.1089/mdr.2023.0347

This study evaluates whether random forest (RF) models are as effective as traditional Logistic Regression (LR) models in predicting multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacterial nosocomial infections. Data were collected from 541 patients with hospital-acquired Gram-negative bacterial infections at two tertiary-level hospitals in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China, from August 2022 to November 2023. Relevant literature informed the selection of significant predictors based on patients' pre-infection clinical information and medication history. The data were split into a training set of 379 cases and a validation set of 162 cases, adhering to a 7:3 ratio. Both RF and LR models were developed using the training set and subsequently evaluated on the validation set. The LR model achieved an accuracy of 84.57%, sensitivity of 82.89%, specificity of 80.10%, positive predictive value of 84%, negative predictive value of 85.06%, and a Yoden index of 0.69. In contrast, the RF model demonstrated superior performance with an accuracy of 89.51%, sensitivity of 90.79%, specificity of 88.37%, positive predictive value of 87.34%, negative predictive value of 91.57%, and a Yoden index of 0.79. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.91 for the LR model and 0.94 for the RF model. These findings indicate that the RF model surpasses the LR model in specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy in predicting hospital-acquired multidrug-resistant Gram-negative infections, showcasing its greater potential for clinical application.