Predictability of China winter temperature under different intensities of La Niña events in seasonal climate forecast models

• Published in: International journal of climatology Vol. 43; no. 5; pp. 2352 - 2368
• Main Authors: Guo, Zengyuan, Ke, Zongjian, Chen, Lijuan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 01.04.2023; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
• Subjects: Air temperature; China; Climate; Climate models; Correlation coefficient; Correlation coefficients; East Asian monsoon; El Nino phenomena; La Nina; La Nina events; La Niña intensity; Meteorological satellites; Modelling; predictability; Seasonal variations; Skills; Variability; Winter; Winter monsoon; winter temperature; Winter temperatures; China
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.7979

In this study, we focus on the features and predictability of winter 2‐m air temperature (t2m) over China under different intensities of La Niña events. The seasonal and intraseasonal prediction skills of winter t2m over China are examined by four state‐of‐art seasonal climate forecast models. The results show that the China winter t2m anomaly is sensitive to the intensity of La Niña. Strong and moderate (S/M) La Niña events are often accompanied by cold winter over China, while a positive anomaly of mean t2m over China frequently occurs in the weak La Niña events. The intensity difference of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) results in this discrepancy. All models have a slightly higher anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) for the S/M La Niña than that for the weak La Niña in leading 1 month (LT1). Both individual models and MME exhibit higher skills of anomaly sign consistency rate (ASCR) for the S/M La Niña, which implies that models predict t2m anomaly over China more accurately in the S/M La Niña events. Furthermore, the winter t2m over China presents larger intraseasonal variability for the S/M La Niña than that for the weak La Niña. Models can capture the t2m anomaly over China more accurately when the temperature varies gently with small intraseasonal variability during winter for the S/M La Niña. China winter temperature anomaly is sensitive to the intensity of La Niña events. Seasonal climate models show higher prediction skills of winter temperature over China for the strong and moderate La Niña than those for the weak La Niña.