Future changes in precipitation characteristics in China

• Published in: International journal of climatology Vol. 39; no. 8; pp. 3558 - 3573
• Main Authors: Wu, Shuang‐Ye, Wu, Yanjuan, Wen, Jiahong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 30.06.2019; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
• Subjects: Annual precipitation; Atmospheric circulation; China; Climate; climate change; Climate models; CMIP5; Distribution; Emission analysis; Extreme weather; extremes; Frequency analysis; Frequency distribution; Hazards; Intercomparison; Mapping; Mean precipitation; Precipitation; Precipitation intensity; Rainfall intensity; Seasonal precipitation; Sensitivity; Temperature; Temperature changes; Water resources; Water resources management; China
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.6038

This study examines potential future changes of precipitation in China based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model projections for the medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We first evaluate the biases of climate model output and correct the biases through quantile mapping. After bias correction, we examine the changes in mean precipitation as well as shifts in its frequency distribution. We also evaluate the changes in extreme precipitation based on frequency analysis techniques. Our results show that by the end of the century, mean precipitation is going to increase by 8% (12%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios, resulted from a combination of an increase in precipitation intensity and a slight decrease in precipitation frequency. Spatially, precipitation is projected to increase more in northern China than southern China, and the increase is the least in the southeast. Seasonally, precipitation is projected to increase more in fall and winter, and less in spring and summer. The precipitation intensity distribution is likely to shift towards more heavy events, with a decrease in the contribution from light events and a significant increase in contribution from heavy events. Extreme precipitation is going to increase at much higher rates than mean precipitation, and the increase is more spatially uniform. Changes in annual and seasonal precipitation are closely linked with temperature change. Total precipitation increases at 2.6% (1.9%) per degree warming under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), but extreme precipitation has much higher sensitivities ranging 4.5–6.5% per degree warming for events of various return intervals. The percentage increase per degree is generally smaller for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 scenarios, suggesting a reduced sensitivity at higher temperature. In addition, the precipitation increase seems to be linked with changes in the atmospheric circulations that transport moisture in different regions in China. These changes have significant implications for the management of water resources and water‐related hazards. This figure shows the projected percentage change between 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 under the medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios for precipitation mean, frequency, and intensity in China. It shows a general increase in precipitation and decrease in frequency, leading to a greater increase in precipitation intensity. The frequency distribution is going to shift towards more intense precipitation, with an even greater increase for extreme precipitation.