Bayesian modeling and test planning for multiphase reliability assessment

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to assess the reliability of a family of vehicles, based on the development of the joint light tactical vehicle (JLTV). The proposed model effectively combines information across three phases of testing and across common vehicle components. The analysis yield...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inQuality and reliability engineering international Vol. 35; no. 3; pp. 750 - 760
Main Authors Gilman, James F., Fronczyk, Kassandra M., Wilson, Alyson G.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Bognor Regis Wiley Subscription Services, Inc 01.04.2019
Subjects
assurance testing
Bayesian analysis
combining information
defense acquisition
Failure analysis
Failure modes
Failure rates
Phases
reliability
Reliability analysis
reliability growth
Vehicles
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Summary:We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to assess the reliability of a family of vehicles, based on the development of the joint light tactical vehicle (JLTV). The proposed model effectively combines information across three phases of testing and across common vehicle components. The analysis yields estimates of failure rates for specific failure modes and vehicles as well as an overall estimate of the failure rate for the family of vehicles. We are also able to obtain estimates of how well vehicle modifications between test phases improve failure rates. In addition to using all data to improve on current assessments of reliability and reliability growth, we illustrate how to leverage the information learned from the three phases to determine appropriate specifications for subsequent testing that will demonstrate if the reliability meets a given reliability threshold.
ISSN:0748-8017
1099-1638
DOI:10.1002/qre.2406