Performance enhancement of wind power forecast model using novel pre‐processing strategy and hybrid optimization approach

• Published in: International journal of adaptive control and signal processing Vol. 38; no. 3; pp. 732 - 748
• Main Authors: Kumar, Krishan, Prabhakar, Priti, Verma, Avnesh
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hoboken, USA John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.03.2024; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
• Subjects: Algorithms; Alternative energy sources; Badgers; Data augmentation; Electric power systems; Energy sources; Error analysis; forecast; Mathematical models; Noise prediction; Operational problems; Optimization; Optimization algorithms; Performance enhancement; Recurrent neural networks; RNN; Synthetic data; time‐series data; Wind effects; Wind power; Wind power generation
• ISSN: 0890-6327; 1099-1115
• DOI: 10.1002/acs.3721

Summary Due to the energy crisis and environmental concerns, wind power has seen a considerable increase in use over the past 10 years as a source of renewable energy. Since wind is intermittent and variable, it is obvious that as penetration levels rise, the influence of wind power generation on the electric power system must be considered. Wind power forecasting is essential because large‐scale wind power integration will make it more difficult to plan, operate, and control the power system. An accurate forecast is an efficient way to deal with the operational problems brought on by wind variability. To better utilize wind energy resources, it is essential to increase prediction accuracy. Frequently, the noise in the dataset causes the ramp events to be misclassified or overestimated. The main emphasis of this study is the pre‐processing of wind power data that produces precise time‐series data while reducing noise or artifact content and maintaining the swing feature of the original data. For this task, the data augmentation approach is proposed, where the augmented data (synthetic data) will be added up with the training data, in such a way as to make the strategy useful for real‐time applications. As the next step, the significant features, such as higher‐order statistical features and lower‐order statistical features are extracted. The extracted features act as the input to the recurrent neural network (RNN) classifier, the weights of which are tuned using the proposed honey badger crow (HBCro) optimization algorithm. The proposed HBCro optimization algorithm acts as the major contribution of the proposed model, and it is modeled with the integration of the concepts of the crow search optimization (CSO) algorithm and the honey badger optimization algorithm (HBA). The proposed system is simulated in MATLAB and the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by comparison with other conventional methods in terms of Error measures. Furthermore, the developed HBCro‐based RNN obtained efficient performance in terms of MSE, MAE, RMSE, RMPSE, MAPE, MARE, MSRE, and RMSRE of 0.1578, 0.0442, 0.2102, 123.238, 124.72, 0.9944, 1.1799, and 1.0732, respectively.