Forecasting of HIV/AIDS in South Africa using 1990 to 2021 data: novel integer- and fractional-order fittings

In this study, we forecast the outbreaks of one of the most serious health issues in South Africa, HIV/AIDS, using mathematical models. We consider an integer- and a fractional-order nonlinear model with real-data fitting. We use the Caputo fractional derivative to perform the necessary analysis of...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inInternational journal of dynamics and control Vol. 12; no. 7; pp. 2247 - 2263
Main Authors Kumar, Pushpendra, S M, Sivalingam, Govindaraj, V.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.07.2024
Subjects
Complexity
Control
Control and Systems Theory
Dynamical Systems
Engineering
Vibration
HIV/AIDS
65D30
92D25
26A33
Numerical method
Mathematical model
Forecasting
Fractional derivatives
93A30
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Summary:In this study, we forecast the outbreaks of one of the most serious health issues in South Africa, HIV/AIDS, using mathematical models. We consider an integer- and a fractional-order nonlinear model with real-data fitting. We use the Caputo fractional derivative to perform the necessary analysis of fractional-order cases. For the forecasting, we utilize the data of newly infected adults and children with HIV in South Africa from 1990 to 2021. From the novel parameter estimation, the calculated value of the reproductive number is 0.8206. We briefly investigate the proposed data to predict the possibility of disease outbreaks. Several graphical simulations are performed to justify the model outputs. This work aims to explore where South Africa is standing in the near future to fight against HIV/AIDS.
ISSN:2195-268X
2195-2698
DOI:10.1007/s40435-023-01344-w