Global risks of Bedellia somnulentella (Lepidoptera: Bedelliidae) invasion: a modeling exercise using a mechanistic model, CLIMEX

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology Vol. 149; no. 1-2; pp. 401 - 411
• Main Authors: dos Santos, Marinalva Martins, da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira, Soares, Marcus Alvarenga, Lopes, Érika Manuela Gonçalves, Shabani, Farzin
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Vienna Springer Vienna 01.07.2022; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Agriculture; Air pollution; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Biodiversity; Climate change; Climate science; Climatology; Development policy; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Emissions; Equator; Equatorial regions; Farm buildings; Food; Generalized linear models; Global temperature changes; Greenhouse gases; Insects; Land use; Latitude; Meteorological data; Natural enemies; Original Paper; Pest outbreaks; Pests; Policies; Population growth; Potatoes; Software; Surveying; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Weather
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-022-04051-2

This study aimed to identify the global risk of invasion and establishment of Bedellia somnulentella , a pest of the sweet potato crop, for the present and future time, to develop policies and prevent future outbreaks. Current climate projections and future (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100) of the insect B. somnulentella were carried out using CLIMEX. The projections showed that climate change could reduce areas of high aptitude for B. somnulentella in the parallel range of latitude 0°, the equator. On the other hand, temperate regions in the parallels with latitudes above 30°S and 30°N can increase hot and humid stress and become more suitable for the pest. This survey is based on weather data only. Data on land use and types, biotic interactions, diseases, natural enemies, alternative hosts, and competition were not considered for this model. Another uncertainty is associated with future levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The data presented here are helpful for the development of policies, studies, and strategies for the management of the B. somnulentella pest in the field. We encourage agricultural organizations in various countries to make strategic and long-term plans to avoid losses of millions of dollars through B. somnulentella.