Modelling of Aythya nyroca habitat under climate change scenarios in Pakistan using MaxEnt approach

• Published in: International journal of environmental studies Vol. 81; no. 6; pp. 2419 - 2434
• Main Authors: William, Gulzaman, Saqib, Zafeer, Qadir, Abdul, Iqbal, Muhammad Javed, Rafique, Afia
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Routledge 01.11.2024; Gordon and Breach Science Publishers
• Subjects: Aythya; Aythya nyroca; Climate change; Climate models; Climate prediction; Geographical distribution; habitat conservation; Habitats; MaxEnt; model validation; Pakistan; Protected species; socioeconomics; species; Threatened species; wetland; Pakistan
• ISSN: 0020-7233; 1029-0400; 1029-0400
• DOI: 10.1080/00207233.2024.2389693

Climate change could disrupt the potential habitat of certain species, leading to shifts in their geographical ranges. MaxEnt modelling is a valuable tool for assessing habitat distribution and conservation strategies aimed at protecting threatened species. Our objective is to employ MaxEnt modelling to predict the current and future distribution of Aythya nyroca across various important wetlands in Punjab, Pakistan under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) (SSPs 126, and SSPs 370) for the 2040s, 2070s and 2100s. We used 60 occurrence records and 8 variables, to simulate Aythya nyroca distribution. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). AUC value was above 0.900 and thereby place this model in the excellent category. The jackknife test identified Bio19, Bio7, and Bio15 as influential variables. This study provides insights for habitat protection and management, through applying international and national legal provisions.