Antinormative Messaging, Group Cues, and the Nuclear Ban Treaty

What types of foreign policy cues are most likely to turn public opinion against a popular emerging norm? Since 2017, the US government has sought to discredit the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and its nuclear nonpossession norm among the largely prodisarmament American public. We fie...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe Journal of politics Vol. 84; no. 1; pp. 591 - 596
Main Authors Herzog, Stephen, Baron, Jonathon, Gibbons, Rebecca Davis
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Chicago The University of Chicago Press 01.01.2022
University of Chicago Press
Subjects
Arms control & disarmament
Attitudes
Bans
Cues
Foreign policy
International security
Military weapons
Norms
Nuclear weapons
Prohibition
Public opinion
Respondents
Rhetoric
Treaties
United States > US
survey experiment
international security
norms
nuclear weapons
international institutions
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Summary:What types of foreign policy cues are most likely to turn public opinion against a popular emerging norm? Since 2017, the US government has sought to discredit the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and its nuclear nonpossession norm among the largely prodisarmament American public. We fielded a national US survey experiment (N=1,219) to evaluate the effects of these elite cues as well as social group cues on public opinion. Our study thus offers one of the first experimental assessments of public attitudes toward nuclear disarmament. We find that both negative government messages and group cues can shift attitudes. Direct exposure to official rhetoric—particularly substantive security and institutional critiques—most effectively increases opposition to the norm. Yet, we observe that all cues have little effect on respondents’ existing opposition to nuclear arms. The American population may support eventually eliminating nuclear weapons, but majority backing for immediate disarmament appears far from assured.
ISSN:0022-3816
1468-2508
DOI:10.1086/714924