Integrating Autonomous Busses as Door-to-Door and First-/Last-Mile Service into Public Transport: Findings from a Stated Choice Experiment

• Published in: Transportation research record Vol. 2678; no. 2; pp. 605 - 619
• Main Authors: Klinkhardt, Christian, Kandler, Kim, Kostorz, Nadine, Heilig, Michael, Kagerbauer, Martin, Vortisch, Peter
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Los Angeles, CA SAGE Publications 01.02.2024
• Subjects: planning and analysis; demand estimation; transportation demand forecasting; mode choices; preference survey data analysis
• ISSN: 0361-1981; 2169-4052
• DOI: 10.1177/03611981231175900

Autonomous busses and on-demand (OD) services have the potential to improve the public transport system. However, research on potential traffic impacts is still ongoing, mainly because of a lack of existing use cases of autonomous driving as part of public transport. The availability of revealed preference data for mode choice decisions is thus very limited. Therefore, we conducted a stated choice experiment to assess mode choice preferences with regard to use cases as the main mode of transport and as the solution for the first and last mile. We also distinguished between OD and schedule-based (sched.) services. The target population of the survey is the population of Baden-Württemberg, a state in southwestern Germany. The responses of 1,434 people were analyzed using a nested logit approach. On this basis, we established exemplary utility functions and descriptively derived recommendations for efficient forms of deploying autonomous busses in addition to already existing well-developed public transport systems. It was found that, under the given conditions, public transport pass owners without a car in their household would be the most interested in using autonomous busses. Car owners without a smartphone see less benefit. It was also shown that the recruiting method of the respondents is crucial. Those reached via social media were significantly more positive than those contacted via an online panel. Further evaluations show that autonomous busses are rated similarly to existing public transport and consequently have particularly high potential on medium distances, especially if their deployment leads to shorter access routes.