Anomalous Propagation and the Sinking of the Russian Warship Moskva

• Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 104; no. 12; pp. E2286 - E2304
• Main Authors: Norin, Lars, Wellander, Niklas, Devasthale, Abhay
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 01.12.2023
• Subjects: Applied Mathematics; Atmosphere; Inversions; Radars/Radar observations; Reanalysis data; Sea/ocean surface; Tillämpad matematik
• ISSN: 0003-0007; 1520-0477; 1520-0477
• DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0113.1

Abstract On 13 April 2022, the Russian warship Moskva was hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles in the Black Sea, leading to its demise. Before launching an anti-ship missile, a target must first be detected and positioned, for example, by an accompanying radar system. However, when the missiles hit the Moskva she was well beyond the normal radar horizon of any ground-based radar system, making the ship undetectable under normal circumstances. Using meteorological reanalysis data, we show that at the time of the missile launch the prevailing weather conditions allowed a ground-based radar to detect targets far beyond the normal radar horizon through anomalous propagation conditions. During such conditions, the atmospheric index of refraction decreases rapidly with height, making electromagnetic radiation bend downward to, partly or fully, compensate the curvature of the Earth. The results show that atmospheric conditions must be considered carefully, even during warfare, as their impact on radar wave propagation can be considerable.