Assessing geospatial models to explain the occurrence of clandestine graves in Mexico

• Published in: Forensic science international Vol. 361; p. 112114
• Main Authors: Silván-Cárdenas, J.L., Alegre-Mondragón, Ana J., Silva-Arias, C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Ireland Elsevier B.V 01.08.2024; Elsevier Limited
• Subjects: Burial; Clandestine grave; Correlation; Crime in Mexico; Criminology; Environmental criminology; Forensic science; Geographic information systems; Geographic profiles; Geographic profiling; Geospatial modeling; Geospatial relative operating characteristic curves; Humans; Hydrology; Mexico; Missing persons; Population Density; ROC Curve; Spatial data; Travel time; Variables; Mexico; Correlation; Geographic profiling; Crime in Mexico; Forensic science; Environmental criminology; Clandestine grave; Geospatial modeling; Geospatial relative operating characteristic curves
• ISSN: 0379-0738; 1872-6283; 1872-6283
• DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2024.112114

We present an assessment of several geospatial layers proposed as models for detecting clandestine graves in Mexico. The analyses were based on adapting the classical ROC curves to geospatial data (gROC) using the fraction of the predicted area instead of the false positive rate. Grave locations were obtained for ten Mexican states that represent the most conflicting regions in Mexico, and 30 layers were computed to represent geospatial models for grave detection. The gROC analysis confirmed that the travel time from urban streets to grave locations was the most critical variable for detecting graves, followed by nighttime light brightness and population density, whereas, contrary to the rationale, a previously proposed visibility index is less correlated with grave locations. We were also able to deduce which variables are most relevant in each state and to determine optimal thresholds for the selected variables. [Display omitted] •Delimitation of search areas in 10 states with clandestine graves in Mexico.•30 variables associated with authorities, offenders, victims, and graves were used.•Geospatial ROC curves were used to identify the correlation.•The most significant factors were the travel time and population density.