Political, economic, and financial country risks and the volatility of the South African Exchange Traded Fund market: A GARCH-MIDAS approach

• Published in: Risk management (Leicestershire, England) Vol. 24; no. 3; pp. 236 - 258
• Main Authors: Kunjal, Damien, Peerbhai, Faeezah, Muzindutsi, Paul-Francois
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Palgrave Macmillan UK 01.09.2022; Palgrave Macmillan
• Subjects: Advantages; Benchmarks; Economics and Finance; Exposure; Finance; Original Article; Political risk; Popularity; Risk; Risk Management; Timing; Volatility; Exchange Traded Fund; Market volatility; Economic risk; E44; Financial risk; G11; G10; Political risk; GARCH-MIDAS
• ISSN: 1460-3799; 1743-4637
• DOI: 10.1057/s41283-022-00093-y

Despite the soaring popularity of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in South Africa, country risk may have a minimal or no effect on ETFs because ETF investors can use a wide variety of market timing activities to minimize their exposure to country risks. This study investigated the effect of political, economic, and financial components of country risk on the volatility of the South African ETF market. A GARCH-MIDAS approach was employed to analyse a sample of South African ETFs from November 2000 to December 2019. The ETF market was segregated into a market of ETFs with domestic benchmarks and a market of ETFs with international benchmarks. The findings suggest that country risk components are significant sources of volatility in ETF markets except for financial risk which does not significantly impact ETFs with international benchmarks suggesting that these ETFs can be used to minimize an investor’s exposure to financial risk. Overall, this study provides new insight into the use of ETFs to diversify an investor’s exposure to different country risk components.