The Impact of ENSO on the Precipitation in Iraq Regions

• Published in: IOP conference series. Earth and environmental science Vol. 1223; no. 1; pp. 12007 - 12013
• Main Authors: Mutar, Aqeel Gh, Abdulkareem, Asraa K., Hussain, Hazim H., Hassoon, Ahmed F., Rajab, Jasim M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.08.2023
• Subjects: Anomalies; Atmospheric research; Climatology; Correlation coefficient; Correlation coefficients; EL Nino; ENSO; Humidity; Hydrologic data; La Nina; Ocean currents; Precipitation; Rainfall; Relative humidity; Sea surface temperature; Seasonal variations; Wind; Wind effects; Wind speed; Iraq
• ISSN: 1755-1307; 1755-1315
• DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/1223/1/012007

Abstract Precipitation is considered one of the important weather variables in determining the climate of any region in the world, and perhaps the precipitation in Iraq is witnessing an incomprehensible seasonal fluctuation. The work tries to identify the reasons for this fluctuation, from one season to another. The monthly average precipitation data in Iraq was obtained by Global Precipitation Climatology Project GPCP. Also, data for sea surface temperature anomalies (SST) for the four El Nino regions, as well as relative humidity and zonal wind speed were obtained from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction NCEP and National Centre for Atmospheric Research NCAR. The study period extended from 1980 to 2022, where the correlation of monthly precipitation average in Iraq with El Nino and La Niña events was tested, and it was found that there was a positive proportional effect of the El Nino event on the increase in rainfall rates in Iraq, the correlation coefficient R about 0.8 in North and Northern-East of Iraq. To explain this, the correlation between El Niño events, relative humidity, and zonal wind speed was tested. It was found that there is a proportional effect of El Nino on the relative humidity and an inverse effect on the zonal wind speed. Central and southern Iraq is less affected by El Niño and La Niña events, as the correlation coefficient of monthly precipitation average with El Niño phenomenon is approximately 0.5 to 0.6.