Environmental niche modelling, population structure and reproductive phenology inform translocation in threatened Amazon endemics

• Published in: Plant ecology Vol. 226; no. 7; pp. 867 - 882
• Main Authors: Wardil, Mariana V., Arruda, André J., Bueno, Marcelo L., Santos, Fernando M. G., Silveira, Fernando A. O.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.07.2025; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Applied Ecology; Biodiversity; Biomedical and Life Sciences; Climate change; Community & Population Ecology; Conservation; Conservation areas; Ecology; Endangered & extinct species; Endangered plants; Endangered species; Environmental impact; Fieldwork; Flora; Flowers & plants; Forests; Geographical distribution; Habitats; Iron compounds; Iron ores; Life Sciences; Mineral exploration; Mineral reserves; Mining; Modelling; Mountains; Niches; Phenology; Plant Ecology; Plant species; Population structure; Rare species; Seed collection; Terrestial Ecology; Translocation; Vegetation; Mining; Translocation; Carajás; Restoration; Endemism; Canga
• ISSN: 1385-0237; 1573-5052
• DOI: 10.1007/s11258-025-01536-8

Mineral exploration is an essential activity promoting profound landscape-level impacts on biodiversity, such as the loss of critical habitats essential for the conservation of rare and endemic edaphic specialists. Translocation can prove a viable strategy to mitigate the environmental impacts generated by mining, but requires a large amount of baseline ecological and genetic data, significant financial investment, and long-term integrative planning. Due to imminent threats posed by iron ore mining and climate change to four edaphic specialist species from isolated mountains in southeastern Amazon, we (1) used environmental niche modelling (ENM) to predict their current and future geographic distribution and to identify potential areas for conservation and translocation, and (2) examined their reproductive phenology and population structure to develop easy-to-measure indicators for assessing translocation success. After fieldwork, compilation of herbarium samples, and secondary data we increased the number of records by 390% for the target species. ENM revealed several mountain ranges in southeastern Amazon with significant future environmental suitability for all species, but in both periods (2041–2060 and 2081–2100), retraction and expansion of environmentally suitable areas were species-specific. Data on population structure and reproductive phenology of the target species represent an important contribution to the ecological baseline for future translocation planning (e.g. indicating the right moment for seed collection and sowing) and monitoring success. Overall, our results contribute to expanding our knowledge on translocation-related issues that are relevant for the conservation and translocation of rare and endangered plant species of Carajás flora.