Climate change impact on rain-fed agriculture of Northern Mexico. An analysis based on the CanESM5 model

• Published in: Modeling earth systems and environment Vol. 10; no. 3; pp. 3617 - 3631
• Main Authors: Ríos-Romero, Andrés, Valdez-Cepeda, Ricardo David, Torres-González, Jorge Alejandro, Navarrete-Molina, Cayetano, López-Santos, Armando
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cham Springer International Publishing 01.06.2024; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Adaptation; Agricultural economics; Agriculture; Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Climate change; Computer Science; Desertification; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth System Sciences; Economic activities; Ecosystems; Environment; Environmental factors; Environmental impact; Farmers; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Mathematical Applications in the Physical Sciences; Mitigation; Original Article; Physics; Radiative forcing; Rain; Rainfall; Rainfed farming; Statistics for Engineering; Stratification; Mexico; Arid lands; Mitigation; AR6; Thornthwaite; Adaptation
• ISSN: 2363-6203; 2363-6211
• DOI: 10.1007/s40808-024-01959-8

Rain-fed agriculture (RA) is highly vulnerable to environmental factors, and in Mexico, this vulnerability has been worsened by climate change (CC). Therefore, it is crucial to assess the impact of these effects at the local level. The study's aims were: (1) to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on RA in Northern Mexico in the near future (2021–2040), and (2) to analyze the adaptation measures employed by farmers to sustain and protect RA as a significant economic activity. The research focused on the municipalities of Durango in the northern region as the study area (SA). To determine variations in key environmental drivers, the CanESM5 model was used for the near future, considering two radiative forcing scenarios: 2.6 and 8.5 Wm −2 . Interviews were conducted using a random stratification design, ranging from general to specific focus, to assess farmers' adaptation strategies. The findings revealed that the mean rainfall and temperature at the SA could increase by 13.4–13.7%, and 1.8–2.1 ºC, respectively. Based on the interviews, ten primary adaptation strategies were identified among farmers in response to CC. These strategies were categorized into five domains: social, human, financial, fixed assets, and natural. Surprisingly, only 16% of the farmers reported being unprepared for adverse scenarios. However, considering the escalating desertification and other external factors, it is crucial to recognize the study area as a risk zone. Farmers in this region should now prioritize adopting sustainable adaptation and mitigation measures for agriculture, both in the present and near future, to effectively cope with these challenges. Graphical abstract