Compact meta-models to estimate the effects of energy efficiency policies and measures

Decision-makers want to be reliably advised on the implications of the decisions they make. Very sophisticated models, which decision-makers are often unfamiliar with, are typically used to provide such assessments for large and complex systems. However, even having access to these models, decision-...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEnergy efficiency Vol. 17; no. 5; p. 45
Main Authors Bashmakov, Igor, Myshak, Anna, Bashmakov, Vladmir, Borisov, Konstantin, Dzedzichek, Maxim, Lunin, Alexey, Lebedev, Oleg, Shishkina, Tatiana
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.06.2024
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Complex systems
Credibility
Decision making
Economics and Management
Energy
Energy conservation
Energy Efficiency
Energy Policy
Energy utilization
Environment
Environmental Economics
Meta-analysis
Original Article
Policies
Renewable and Green Energy
Sustainable Development
GHG emissions
Subsidies
Energy efficiency
Indirect effects
Modeling
Policies and measures
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Summary:Decision-makers want to be reliably advised on the implications of the decisions they make. Very sophisticated models, which decision-makers are often unfamiliar with, are typically used to provide such assessments for large and complex systems. However, even having access to these models, decision-makers can rarely handle them. A model is best known to its developers, who, therefore, need to be contracted to estimate the effects of the proposed policies. This takes time and money, yet leaves the credibility of the results questionable in countries with a limited culture of cooperation between decision-makers and a modeling community. One possible, yet partial, solution is to use an ensemble of models. Another option is to use a set of compact meta-models to address specific policies and measures; the parameters of such compact models can be assessed using other, large and complex, models. Decision-makers can run these simple compact models on their own to make policy dialogue more operational and to have more confidence in the results. This paper presents one such model, which consists of 95 compact sub-models designed to outline comprehensive energy efficiency programs, along with the results of its pilot application for an illustrative set of policies. This application has shown, that such models may serve as an effective tool for a prompt policy dialogue with all stakeholders in compiling the policy package to untap the most of the available energy efficiency potential to meet sector-specific or economy-wide goals in terms of energy savings or energy intensity reduction.
ISSN:1570-646X
1570-6478
DOI:10.1007/s12053-024-10222-z