Temporal evolution of hurricane activity: insights from decades of category 1–5 analysis

• Published in: Environmental earth sciences Vol. 83; no. 7; p. 202
• Main Authors: Neto, José Augusto Ferreira, Mendes, David, Gonçalves, Weber Andrade, Cintra, Marcio Machado, de Oliveira Júnior, José Francisco
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.04.2024; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Analysis; Biogeosciences; Cluster analysis; Clustering; Cyclonic activity; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Environmental Science and Engineering; Geochemistry; Geology; Hurricanes; Hydrology/Water Resources; Interannual variability; Monthly distribution; Original Article; Pressure drop; Terrestrial Pollution; Trajectory analysis; Tropical depressions; Variability; Vector quantization; Climate change; Climate variability; Hurricanes
• ISSN: 1866-6280; 1866-6299
• DOI: 10.1007/s12665-024-11504-6

This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of hurricane trajectories and their variabilities in categories 1–5 over several decades for the North Atlantic Basin. Utilizing HURDAT2 data from 1961 to 2021, the analysis categorizes hurricanes based on the rate of pressure drop within a 6-h interval, revealing distinct patterns of intensification and weakening among different categories. The K-means clustering method synthesizes hurricane trajectories into representative paths, illustrating significant variations across decades. The research indicates that hurricanes in categories 1 and 2 predominantly originate from tropical depressions, with this trend slightly intensifying in categories 3 and 4. In contrast, Category 5 displayed variation, revealing an increased frequency in the subsequent decades. Additionally, the study analyzes the monthly distribution of hurricanes, identifying September as the peak month across all categories. The analysis further detects significant interannual variability with a noticeable intensification in hurricane activity since the 1990s, albeit with some reductions in the early 2010s. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is used to summarize cyclonic activities, with results indicating a decrease from 1970 to 1995, followed by a consistent surge over the last 15 years. This aligns with previous research suggesting an approximately 60% increase in ACE since the 1980s. Furthermore, an analysis of North Atlantic Basin data reflects a progressive increase in the frequency of named storms (NS) and hurricanes, particularly from 1991 onwards. In conclusion, the study highlights not only an escalating frequency of hurricanes, but also increased variability and unpredictability, necessitating further research to comprehend the underlying causes and evaluate potential socioeconomic and environmental consequences.