Building CO2 Storage Risk Profiles With The Help Of Quantitative Simulations

• Published in: Energy procedia Vol. 1; no. 1; pp. 2471 - 2477
• Main Authors: Vivalda, Claudia, Loizzo, Matteo, Lefebvre, Yannick
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.02.2009
• Subjects: carbon capture; carbon storage; CO2 fate; performance assessment; probabilistic simulation; quantitative risk assessment; carbon storage; performance assessment; probabilistic simulation; carbon capture; CO2 fate; quantitative risk assessment
• ISSN: 1876-6102; 1876-6102
• DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2009.02.009

Containment is a key factor of geological CO2 storage: small, localized leaks could have consequences to health and safety (e.g. CO2 accumulation in cellars) and the environment (e.g. drinking water pollution). On the other hand, large leaks could affect wide areas and large populations, and could reduce the overall economic and environmental benefit of the CO2 storage site and of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in general. Containment potential over hundreds of years is affected by unknowns and uncertainties, and it is therefore appropriately dealt with in the framework of risk analysis. One way of estimating containment risk is to use quantitative simulators: if properly calibrated they can predict leakages through potential pathways and, if used properly in a probabilistic framework (e.g. through a Monte Carlo approach), can take into account uncertainties and produce probability distributions of CO2 leaks. This paper will discuss how different methodologies for estimating risk from probability distributions of releases of substances can be reconciled in a consistent, unified approach that can be rigorous or simplified according to the state of knowledge and the degree of detail required in the calculation.