3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

• Published in: Transactions of Tianjin University Vol. 22; no. 2; pp. 110 - 120
• Main Author: 王晓玲 孙小沛 张胜利 孙蕊蕊 李瑞金 朱泽彪
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Tianjin Tianjin University 01.04.2016
• Subjects: Engineering; Humanities and Social Sciences; Mechanical Engineering; multidisciplinary; Science; 三维仿真; 三维数值模拟; 不确定性; 二维数值模拟; 墙面处理; 复合效应; 灾害过程; 风暴潮灾害; 3D SST; risk degree; storm surge disaster; scenario analysis; composite scenario; simulation; turbulence model; 3D SST k-ωturbulence model; com-posite scenario
• ISSN: 1006-4982; 1995-8196
• DOI: 10.1007/s12209-016-2528-y

The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario（floodplain, overflow or dike breach）, ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity（100-year and 200-year frequency） were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.