A Study on Bayesian Updating of Time History Sea State Estimation Based on Measured Hull Stresses

To ensure structural safety of large container ships, advanced application of monitoring data is pursued in the structural health monitoring project. In this study, we estimated statistical sea state that the ship actually encountered using Bayesian updating of the sea state data estimated from the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of the Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers Vol. 34; pp. 73 - 85
Main Authors Kubo, Hiromi, Okada, Tetsuo, Chen, Xi, Kawamura, Yasumi, Mitsuyuki, Taiga
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Japanese
Published Tokyo The Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers 2021
Japan Science and Technology Agency
Subjects
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian theory
Cargo ships
Container ships
History
Probability theory
Real time
Sea state
Sea states
State estimation
Stresses
Structural engineering
Structural health monitoring
Structural safety
Tracking
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Summary:To ensure structural safety of large container ships, advanced application of monitoring data is pursued in the structural health monitoring project. In this study, we estimated statistical sea state that the ship actually encountered using Bayesian updating of the sea state data estimated from the measured hull stresses. To achieve reliable real-time short-term statistical estimation of the sea state, we introduced forgetting rate to the past data in the Bayesian model. In addition, abrupt change of the sea state due to the ship operation was detected by Bayesian analysis of the data to obtain probable time history of the sea state by Bayesian update. As a result, good tracking performance of the real time sea state was demonstrated.
ISSN:1880-3717
1881-1760
DOI:10.2534/jjasnaoe.34.73