Analysis of Asynchronism-Synchronism of Regional Precipitation in Inter-Basin Water Transfer Areas

• Published in: Transactions of Tianjin University Vol. 18; no. 5; pp. 384 - 392
• Main Author: 张强 王本德 李慧赟
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Heidelberg Tianjin University 01.10.2012; School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China%Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China
• Subjects: Copula; Engineering; Humanities and Social Sciences; Mechanical Engineering; multidisciplinary; Science; 区域降水; 同步; 建模方法; 异步; 调水区; 跨流域; asynchronism-synchronism of regional precipitation; inter-basin water transfer; pair-copula; frequency analysis
• ISSN: 1006-4982; 1995-8196
• DOI: 10.1007/s12209-012-1685-x

The local characteristics of multi-dimensional modeling method of multivariate copula. A new modeling remedy this defect. Different types of copula distribution random variables are seldom considered in the general method, called pair-copula construction, is introduced to functions are allowed to be introduced in this method. Correspondingly, the related characteristics of complex multivariate can be described by a cascade of pair-copula acting on two variables at a time. In the analysis of asynchronism-synchronism of regional precipitation in WED inter- basin water transfer areas, the pair-copula construction method is compared with the general modeling method of mul- tivariate copula. The results show that the local dependence structure would exist among hydrologic variables even in three-dimensional cases. In this situation, the general modeling method of multivariate copula would face difficulties in fitting distribution. However, the pair-copula construction method could capture the local information of hydrologic variables efficiently by introducing different types of copula distribution functions. Moreover, the compensation ca- pacity of water resources is strong in different hydrological areas of WED water transfer project. The asynchronous frequency of wetness and dryness is 69.64% and the favorable frequency for water transfer is 46.15%.