Extinction of the human species: What could cause it and how likely is it to occur?

• Published in: Cambridge Prisms: Extinction Vol. 3; p. e4
• Main Author: ÓhÉigeartaigh, Sean
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Cambridge University Press 2025
• Subjects: anthropocene; anthropogenic impacts; climate change; existential risk; societal collapse; existential risk; anthropogenic impacts; societal collapse; anthropocene; climate change
• ISSN: 2755-0958; 2755-0958
• DOI: 10.1017/ext.2025.4

The possibility of human extinction has received growing academic attention over the last several decades. Research has analysed possible pathways to human extinction, as well as ethical considerations relating to human survival. Potential causes of human extinction can be loosely grouped into exogenous threats such as an asteroid impact and anthropogenic threats such as war or a catastrophic physics accident. In all cases, an outcome as extreme as human extinction would require events or developments that either have been of very low probability historically or are entirely unprecedented. This introduces deep uncertainty and methodological challenges to the study of the topic. This review provides an overview of potential human extinction causes considered plausible in the current academic literature, experts’ judgements of likelihood where available and a synthesis of ethical and social debates relating to the study of human extinction.