An Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia

An outbreak of novel coronavirus has been happening in more than 200 countries and has shocked society. Several measures have been implemented to slowing down the epidemics while waiting for vaccine and pharmaceutical intervention. Using a deterministic and stochastic model, we assess the effectiven...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inCommunication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 3; no. 1; pp. 19 - 27
Main Authors Ndii, Meksianis Z., Hadisoemarto, Panji, Agustian, Dwi, Supriatna, Asep K.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society 05.06.2020
Subjects
covid-19
deterministic
probability of extinction
reproductive ratio
stochastic
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ISSN2549-2896
2549-2896
DOI10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.3

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Summary:An outbreak of novel coronavirus has been happening in more than 200 countries and has shocked society. Several measures have been implemented to slowing down the epidemics while waiting for vaccine and pharmaceutical intervention. Using a deterministic and stochastic model, we assess the effectiveness of current strategies: reducing the transmission rate and speeding up the time to detect infected individuals. The reproductive ratio and the probability of extinction are determined. We found that the combination of both strategies is effective to slow down the epidemics. We also find that speeding up the time to detect infected individuals without reducing the transmission rate is not sufficient to slow down the epidemics.
ISSN:2549-2896
2549-2896
DOI:10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.3