Climate conditions, credit risk cycles, and technological progress: Evidence from China

• Published in: Technological forecasting & social change Vol. 210; p. 123893
• Main Authors: Chen, KanXiang, Teng, Fangfei, Razzaq, Asif, Li, Chengnan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01.01.2025
• Subjects: Climate change; Credit risk; Geodetector; Spatial differentiation; Climate change; Geodetector; Credit risk; Spatial differentiation
• ISSN: 0040-1625
• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123893

This study investigates the spatial differentiation of credit risk related to global climate change in 30 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2020. We utilize geodetector techniques to explore the effects of five critical factors on credit risk: technological progress, economic pressure, climate change, financial management, and the ecological environment. The findings indicate significant spatial variance in credit risk across China. Per capita income, unemployment rate, annual extreme temperatures, energy consumption per capita, financial accumulation, patent applications, and number of research and development personnel have strong explanatory power for credit risk, whereas technological progress increases significantly over time. Furthermore, this study finds that regions in China, where climate change affects credit risk, underwent spatial and temporal transfers from south to north from 2015 to 2020. In this process, climate factors affect credit risk directly. This study suggests that regional policies are subject to variance in climate change, credit risks, and economic conditions. •From 2010 to 2020, technological progress is an increasingly significant driver of credit risk, explaining >40 %.•Extreme temperatures and weather have the greatest impact on credit risk in the context of climate change.•From 2015 to 2020, there is a spatial and temporal shift of credit risk affected by climate change from south to north in China.