Coastal ecosystem services and climate change: Case study for integrated modeling and valuation

• Published in: Global ecology and conservation Vol. 38; p. e02240
• Main Authors: Oliveira, Bruno M., Boumans, Roelof, Fath, Brian D., Harari, Joseph
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.10.2022; Elsevier
• Subjects: Brazil; Climate change scenarios; Ecosystem services valuation; MIMES (Multiscale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services); Social–ecological systems; Brazil; Climate change scenarios; MIMES (Multiscale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services); Ecosystem services valuation; Social–ecological systems
• ISSN: 2351-9894; 2351-9894
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02240

Since the publication of global studies about ecosystem health and their importance to society, understanding and valuing ecosystem services (ES) has been gaining attention. Measuring undesired drivers that impact these services is crucial for planning sound socio-economic policies. This work explores how the coastal ES from Ubatuba, Brazil might behave following climate and tourists’ management scenarios. A new model, embracing ecological functions and their interactions with the city was built and through benefit transfer methods, the value of ten ecosystem services was calculated. Results show that all ES will be affected by the climate scenarios and by tourism reduction. The conclusion is that the region can provide these 10 ES with an economic value of 622 M dollars (± 3.6 M dollars) from 2010 to 2100. When climate change is considered, the values most likely decline from −1.23% (±2.96%) or −7.5 M dollars (±3.8 M dollars) to −2.34% (±3.88%) or −14 M dollars (± 6.3 M dollars) depending on the scenario. Results also show the possibility of an increase in the aggregate ES values due to the climate scenario effect, but it is less likely to occur. Controlling the population visiting the area is the main policy advice from this research which can lead to positive effects on the ES provision in all scenarios. •The studied coastal area will provide ES valued in 622 M dollars (± 3.6 M dollars) from 2010 to 2100.•Climate change will most likely reduce the yield of ES in this area from −1.23% (±2.96%) for RCP2.6 to −2.34% (±3.88%) for RCP8.5.•Reducing the number of tourists can improve the yield of ES.•Economic scenarios can change significantly the yield of ES in the future.