Subject to change: quantifying transformation in armed conflict actors at scale using text

An extensive theoretical and practitioner literature addresses the drivers and consequences of transformation of violent rebel actors during conflicts. However, measurement challenges constrain large- N empirical study of the effects and consequences of such transformations. This Research Note intro...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inPolitical science research and methods Vol. 13; no. 2; pp. 475 - 481
Main Author Foster, Margaret J.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Cambridge Cambridge University Press 01.04.2025
Subjects
Case studies
Conflict
Militancy
Trends
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Summary:An extensive theoretical and practitioner literature addresses the drivers and consequences of transformation of violent rebel actors during conflicts. However, measurement challenges constrain large- N empirical study of the effects and consequences of such transformations. This Research Note introduces a strategy to identify periods of transformation and change in the operation of non-state armed militant groups via computational text analysis of trends in reporting on activities. It presents the measurement approach and demonstrates scalability to a corpus of more than 200 militant groups operating from 1989 to 2020. The study concludes by extending a recent analysis of the impacts of uncertainty on conflict termination. An online Appendix demonstrates the advantages and drawbacks of the measurement through a series of case studies.
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ISSN:2049-8470
2049-8489
DOI:10.1017/psrm.2024.26