Impact of family policies and economic situation on low fertility in Tehran, Iran: A multi-agent-based modeling

This paper investigates and predicts the impact of family policies and the economic situation on women's reproductive behavior in Tehran Province, Iran. The low fertility behavior of women in terms of simultaneous interaction among such agents as household, women, and government is modeled usin...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published inDemographic research Vol. 51; pp. COV5 - 154
Main Author Esmaeili, Nasibeh
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Rostock Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research 01.07.2024
Max Planck Institut für Demografische Forschung
Subjects
Abortion
Age groups
Agent-based models
Agents
Behavior
Childbearing
Childbirth & labor
Children
Complex systems
Decision making
Economic aspects
Education
Family income
Family policy
Family support
Fertility
Fertility, Human
Government
Heterogeneity
Modelling
Multiagent systems
Optimism
Policies
Policy making
Population growth
Population policy
Pregnancy
Reproductive behavior
Social aspects
Social interaction
Total fertility rate
Uncertainty
Women
Iran
Online AccessGet full text

Cover

More Information
Summary:This paper investigates and predicts the impact of family policies and the economic situation on women's reproductive behavior in Tehran Province, Iran. The low fertility behavior of women in terms of simultaneous interaction among such agents as household, women, and government is modeled using a multi-agent-based modeling. The probability, heterogeneity, uncertainty, and interactions of agents are the top features of the model. The model is developed based on the micro level and utilized at the macro level for the prediction of a range of such reproductive outcomes as the total fertility rate (TFR), the cumulative frequency of children ever born, unwanted and wanted pregnancies, miscarriage, and induced abortions of women in Tehran Province during 2019 and 2029. The results derived by the model projects show that the TFR in Tehran Province will decline with a steep downward trend over 10 years from 1.4 children in 2019 to 1.06 children in 2029 while the peak of childbearing is observed for the age group 25 to 29. With the implementation of the optimistic economic scenario and the provision of family support policies by the government, the TFR would reach 1.1 children in 2029, and the peak of childbearing will shift to the 20 to 24 age group.
ISSN:1435-9871
1435-9871
2363-7064
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2024.51.5