Agent Mental Models and Bayesian Rules as a Tool to Create Opinion Dynamics Models

• Published in: Physics (Online) Vol. 6; no. 3; pp. 1013 - 1031
• Main Author: Martins, André C. R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.09.2024
• Subjects: agent-based models; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian methods; CODA; cognition; Dynamics; Estimates; Experiments; Extremism; Heuristic; Human behavior; Human bias; opinion dynamics; Rationality; sociophysics
• ISSN: 2624-8174; 2624-8174
• DOI: 10.3390/physics6030062

Traditional models of opinion dynamics provide a simplified approach to understanding human behavior in basic social scenarios. However, when it comes to issues such as polarization and extremism, a more nuanced understanding of human biases and cognitive tendencies are required. This paper proposes an approach to modeling opinion dynamics by integrating mental models and assumptions of individuals agents using Bayesian-inspired methods. By exploring the relationship between human rationality and Bayesian theory, this paper demonstrates the usefulness of these methods in describing how opinions evolve. The analysis here builds upon the basic idea in the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA) model, by applying Bayesian-inspired rules to account for key human behaviors such as confirmation bias, motivated reasoning, and human reluctance to change opinions. Through this, This paper updates rules that are compatible with known human biases. The current work sheds light on the role of human biases in shaping opinion dynamics. I hope that by making the model more realistic this might lead to more accurate predictions of real-world scenarios.