Study on population behavior under home quarantine policies of COVID-19 in China based on double-layer network evolutionary games

• Published in: Journal of intelligent & fuzzy systems Vol. 44; no. 4; pp. 6709 - 6722
• Main Authors: Fan, Ruguo, Chen, Fangze, Wang, Yitong, Wang, Yuanyuan, Chen, Rongkai
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam IOS Press BV 01.01.2023
• Subjects: Background noise; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Disease control; Game theory; Multiagent systems; Optimization; Policies; Quarantine; Strategy; China
• ISSN: 1064-1246; 1875-8967
• DOI: 10.3233/JIFS-221594

In the practice of COVID-19 prevention and control in China, the home quarantine policy directly connects and manages the residents, which plays a significant role in preventing the spread of the epi-demic in the community. We evaluate the effectiveness of current home quarantine policy in the actual execution process based on the evolutionary game relationship between the community and res-idents. This paper establishes a double-layer coupled complex network game model, and uses the multi-agent modeling method to study the game relationship between the community and residents in the context of home quarantine policies. The results show that initial strategy of the community with strict supervision and reasonable government reward allocation will increase the proportion of the residents complying with the quarantine rule. When 80% of the communities chose to supervise strictly at the beginning, people are more likely to follow the rules. While when the residents can only get 20% of the government’s reward, the proportion of choosing to violate the quarantine rules is much higher than that when they can get 80% of the reward. Besides, the structure of small-world network and environmental noise will also affect the residents’ strategy. As the probability of reconnection of the small-world network rises from 0.2 to 0.8, the proportion of residents who choose to comply with the strategy becomes much higher. When the environmental noise reaches 0.5, the ratio of residents who choose to violate the strategy is higher than the ratio of complianc. The study is helpful to provide the basis for the government to formulate the quarantine policy and propose an optimization for making effective quarantine measures. In this way, the government can adjust the parameters to make residents achieve the possible level of compliance with quarantine policies as high as possible to contain the spread of the epidemic.