Potential effects of climate change on future distribution of an endangered tree species, Acer mazandaranicum, in the Hyrcanian forest

• Published in: Forest ecology and management Vol. 555; p. 121654
• Main Authors: Yousefzadeh, Hamed, Walas, Łukasz, Amirchakhmaghi, Narjes, Alipour, Shirin, Pouramin, Mansour, Song, Yi-Gang, Kozlowski, Gregor
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.03.2024
• Subjects: Climate change, Morphological spatial analysis; Endangered tree; Endemic species; Hyrcanian forest; Endemic species; Hyrcanian forest; Endangered tree; Climate change, Morphological spatial analysis
• ISSN: 0378-1127; 1872-7042
• DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121654

Acer mazandaranicum is an endemic, endangered, recently described large tree species distributed in the Hyrcanian forest. Only a few scattered populations with low density are known in the Alborz Mountains of Iran. This research aims to approximate the potential geographical distribution range of A. mazandaranicum in the past, present, and future to provide a basis for prioritizing conservation-related activities. For the contemporary climate model, two past scenarios and three future climate scenarios were tested. The most crucial variables, as determined by the model, were the seasonality of precipitation and the amount of precipitation during the driest quarter, which together constituted 90.9% of the model for current conditions and presented A. mazandaranicum climatic requirements for appropriate habitats. According to our findings, the potential habitat of the species will be drastically diminished in suitability in the future. The model projected an area of 7410.8 km2 as moderate suitability habitat (0.50–0.75) and 13,896.41 km2 as low suitability (0.25–0.50). The average altitude in the potential range is 1026 m a.s.l. During the LGM, the potential range of A. mazandaranicum was 209.27% of the current area and spread mainly at lower altitudes (1078.8 m a.s.l.). The findings indicate a fascinating possibility that the species may possess the capability to shift their altitudinal distribution and potentially migrate to higher elevations in response to increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall. According to morphological spatial analysis (MSPA), the central and western regions of the Hyrcanian forests contain a core area with high connectivity. In order to mitigate the threats facing this endangered species and reduce the risk of extinction, ex situ conservation measures as well as in situ protection activities within their habitats are necessary for ensuring its long-term survival. •Precipitation seasonality and precipitation of the driest quarter are the most important factors of the presence of A. mazandaranicum.•During LGM, the potential range area of A. mazandaranicum was around 209% of the current, and around 14,962 km2 was estimated as moderate and high-suitability habitat during the LGM.•Potential habitat suitability of the species will shrink significantly in the future, and this is more worrying for A. mazandaranicum in comparison with the other members of the genus Acer in the Hyrcanian forest.