Nuclear weapons, existential threats, and the stability-instability paradox

• Published in: The Nonproliferation review Vol. 25; no. 3-4; pp. 223 - 247
• Main Authors: Early, Bryan R., Asal, Victor
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Abingdon Routledge 04.05.2018; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: conflict; deterrence; existential threats; Nuclear weapons; Quantitative analysis; Stability; stability-instability paradox; Threats
• ISSN: 1073-6700; 1746-1766
• DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2018.1518757

Recent scholarship has largely ignored systematic differences in the existential threats that nuclear-weapon possessors pose to other states. This study theorizes that the capacity to pose existential threats shapes nuclear-armed states' willingness to use military force against one another. We explore three hypotheses regarding how nuclear-based existential threats can deter conflict or encourage it, including under the conditions proposed by the stability-instability paradox. We rely on a statistical analysis of nuclear-armed dyads from 1950 to 2001 and employ the Nuclear Annihilation Threat (NAT) Index to capture variation in the existential threats nuclear-armed states pose to one another. We find that being able to pose an existential threat to another state emboldens potential initiators to use military force but does not deter attacks. The emboldening effects are particularly strong under the hypothesized conditions of the stability-instability paradox. Our study provides unique contributions to ongoing debates over the political effects of nuclear weapons.