US-China trade friction and agricultural nitrogen loss in China

• Published in: Environmental impact assessment review Vol. 106; p. 107507
• Main Authors: Wang, Juanli, Yu, Shuao, Elbakidze, Levan, Xin, Yaru, Song, Shixiong, Ma, Yongxi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01.05.2024
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Equilibrium; Nitrogen loss; Trade barrier; US-China trade; US-China trade; Trade barrier; Nitrogen loss; Equilibrium; Agricultural production
• ISSN: 0195-9255; 1873-6432
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107507

Agricultural production, trade and environmental quality are interdependent. The US and China have been the world largest trade partners. However, trade tensions and interest in protectionist policies intensified in recent years. We use a price endogenous partial equilibrium model to systematically examine the impact of increased Chinese tariff on agricultural imports from the US on nitrogen (N) loss in China. The results show that a 25% tariff on US soybean imports increases the acreage of major crops in China by 1.37%. Although aggregate crop acreage increases, the impact on cumulative nitrogen fertilizer uses and the corresponding N loss from cropland is not significant as less N-intensive soybean acreage replaces some of the more N-intensive crops like wheat. However, our estimates show significant heterogeneity in N loss across Chinese provinces, ranging from 0.05% to 2.97% increase. These results identify provinces where remediation measures may be needed to effectively manage the potential increase in nitrogen loss associated with greater soybean production. •The tariff on soybean imports from the US increases soybean and corn production in China.•The tariff has a small but positive effect on N use and loss in China.•The increase in N loss varies across regions in China from 0.05 to 3%.