Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum

What explains the sudden rise and fall of Latin America's leftist governments during the 21st century? Two competing interpretations have been put forward: either citizens vote positionally or retrospectively. This paper aims to shed light on this debate by analyzing the 2016 constitutional ref...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inRevista de ciencia política (Santiago) Vol. 41; no. ahead; pp. 449 - 475
Main Author Blanchard, Maxime
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Santiago Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Instituto de Ciencia Politica 01.01.2021
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia Política
Subjects
Economic conditions
Left wing politics
POLITICAL SCIENCE
Referendums
Voter behavior
Voting
Bolivia
Constitutional Referendum
Retrospective Voting
izquierda latinoamericana
Latin American left
referéndum constitucional
voto posicional
Positional Voting
Bolivia
vote retrospectivo
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Summary:What explains the sudden rise and fall of Latin America's leftist governments during the 21st century? Two competing interpretations have been put forward: either citizens vote positionally or retrospectively. This paper aims to shed light on this debate by analyzing the 2016 constitutional referendum in Bolivia. The results of our investigation of voting behaviour are most supportive of a retrospective voting interpretation. Dissatisfaction with the state of democracy in Bolivia and having experienced regional protests are both shown to be the strongest predictors of a "No" vote. The results support the claim that valence issues most significantly determine voting behaviour in new democracies, yet they also suggest that retrospective assessments of governmental performance extend further than mere economic conditions.
ISSN:0718-090X
0716-1417
0718-090X
DOI:10.4067/S0718-090X2021005000101