A time of emergence (TOE) analysis on the impact and uncertainty of global warming on Korean peak summers

In recent years, South Korea has experienced a notable escalation in the intensity and frequency of summer heat. To quantitatively gauge the impact of global warming on Korean summers, this study employs the Time of Emergence (TOE) method, assessing when the effects of global warming surpass natural...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inClimatic change Vol. 177; no. 7; p. 109
Main Authors Ryu, Jihun, (Simon) Wang, Shih-Yu, Yoon, Jin-Ho
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.07.2024
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate
Climate action
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate models
Climate variability
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Emergence
Estimates
Global warming
Global warming effects
Heat waves
Impact analysis
Summer
Uncertainty
South Korea
Climate change
Natural climate variability
Time of emergence
Long-term trend
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Summary:In recent years, South Korea has experienced a notable escalation in the intensity and frequency of summer heat. To quantitatively gauge the impact of global warming on Korean summers, this study employs the Time of Emergence (TOE) method, assessing when the effects of global warming surpass natural climate variability. Determining a precise regional TOE is challenging due to disparities between modeled climates and observations. For peak summer seasons (July and August), TOE estimates range from the 2010s to the early 2030s in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5, suggesting an imminent or already reached TOE. However, for the same scenario, different methodologies and datasets project the TOE to the late 21st century, suggesting the existence of uncertainty in the TOE. One reason for this uncertainty is the discrepancies identified between climate models and observations, which suggest that climate models could delay the TOE beyond the present time. Furthermore, from 1959 to 2014, global warming accounts for less than 10% of the observed temperature. Despite this, the strengthening of global warming signals is confirmed, leading to the expectation of more extreme events than those seen in the 2018 heat wave. This raises questions about current estimates of TOE and emphasizes the need for robust climate modeling to inform effective climate action.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-024-03766-7