Non-market value losses to coastal ecosystem services and wetlands from sea-level rise and storm surge, 2050 to 2100: The Kimberley Region, Western Australia

• Published in: Ocean & coastal management Vol. 255; p. 107215
• Main Authors: Kompas, Tom, Che, Tuong Nhu, Grafton, R. Quentin
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2024
• Subjects: Adaptation; Climate change; Coastal inundation; Ecosystem services; Kimberly region; Wetlands; Climate change; Kimberly region; Ecosystem services; Coastal inundation; Wetlands; Adaptation
• ISSN: 0964-5691; 1873-524X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107215

Accelerating climate change from the thermal expansion of oceans and losses from terrestrial glaciers and ice sheets causes sea level rise (SLR), damaging coastal ecosystems and generating non-market value losses. Using an innovative Artificial Intelligence (AI) projection method and 18 existing geographical SLR projections, we project future sea level rise and storm surge (SLR/S) for the 1600 km coastline of the Kimberley Region, Western Australia, a region with a larger surface area than Great Britain, Ireland, and Portugal combined and with a permanent population of 40,000 people of which more than 16,000 identify as Indigenous. Using our projected coastal area inundation from future SLR, we estimated the non-market value losses of the Kimberley's coastal ecosystem and wetlands with projected SLR/S to 2050 and 2100 for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Average annual non-market losses from SLR/S in 2050 and 2100 in the Kimberley are large relative to the size of the regional economy and are estimated to range from A$2.7 to A$4.3 billion (2050) and A$8.1 to A$15.8 billion (2100), depending on the RCP and temperature pathway. Our findings highlight the need for adequately resourced community-based approaches to climate adaptation.