Study on flood level forecasting of tidal reach in Puyang River basin

• Published in: Journal of physics. Conference series Vol. 2865; no. 1; pp. 12008 - 12013
• Main Authors: Zhen, Yiwei, Guo, Ming, Li, Penghui, Chen, Jianzheng, Liu, Yucheng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.10.2024
• Subjects: Accuracy; Flood forecasting; Flood levels; Flood predictions; Forecasting; River basins; Tidal waterways; Upstream; Water discharge; Water levels
• ISSN: 1742-6588; 1742-6596
• DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/2865/1/012008

The downstream section of the Puyang River is a tidal river reach subject to both upstream floods and downstream tides. This combined impact results in an unstable relationship between water level and discharge at the forecast station, making flood level forecasting challenging. This paper took the Linpu station on the Puyang River in Zhejiang Province as the research object. Based on the historical flood data, the cause of high water levels at Linpu station was analyzed. The flood levels at Linpu station were decomposed into flood increments and basic tidal levels. Using the multiple regression method, the prediction formula for upstream flood-induced water level increments was obtained. A flood level forecasting method based on the flood increment was developed. The result of the scheme accuracy evaluation indicates that this method has good forecasting performance. The flood level forecasting method for the tidal channel proposed in this paper has a simple structure and high accuracy, which provides a scientific basis for the prevention and control of flood and drought hazards and the decision-making of project scheduling in the tidal river.