Glasgow-2021: The Difficult Road to the 1.5°С Goal

The possible consequences of decisions of the 26th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Glasgow, 2021) for the world energy and anthropogenic climate changes are investigated. A group of scenarios of the anthropogenic impact on the global climate system is prop...

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Published inDoklady. a journal of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Physics Vol. 67; no. 7; pp. 215 - 221
Main Authors Klimenko, V. V., Mikushina, O. V., Tereshin, A. G.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Moscow Pleiades Publishing 01.07.2022
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Air temperature
Atmospheric models
Carbon cycle
Chemical composition
Classical Mechanics
Climate change
Climate models
Decisions
Global economy
Human influences
Mathematical and Computational Physics
Physics
Physics and Astronomy
Reforestation
Technical Sciences
Theoretical
models
decarbonization
scenarios
methane emission
forests
energy
climate change
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Summary:The possible consequences of decisions of the 26th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Glasgow, 2021) for the world energy and anthropogenic climate changes are investigated. A group of scenarios of the anthropogenic impact on the global climate system is proposed including the implementation of Glasgow solutions in the field of decarbonization of the world economy, reduction of methane emissions, and reforestation. It is shown that there is a technical potential for implementing the Glasgow decisions, but the desired pace of reformation of the world energy and the entire economy is unprecedented on a historical scale. Using the global carbon cycle and climate models developed at MPEI, the changes in the chemical composition, the thermal radiative balance of the Earth’s atmosphere, and the global average air temperature for each of the scenarios are calculated. It is shown that the implementation of the entire range of measures proposed in Glasgow for reducing the anthropogenic impact on the planetary climate system can limit the warming to within 1.5°C of the pre-industrial level, but there are serious doubts about the practical implementation of the proposed program of decarbonization of the world economy.
ISSN:1028-3358
1562-6903
DOI:10.1134/S1028335822070023